But concern grows that 'bread and butter' home values have started to fall
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Chiswick property prices have risen to a new record high with the quarterly average over £700,000 for the first time.
However, while the figures show volumes and prices increasing at the top end of the market, the medium and lower or "bread and butter ' sales end of the market has dropped in the third quarter of this year. Flat prices are down over the year by 3.8% and the average price of a terraced house in W4 is down below £800,000, having been above that level for the previous two quarters.
Chiswick estate agent Christian Harper of Oliver Finn warned that recent multi million pound sales in Chiswick were not reflective of the general trend and had biased the figures of the last two quarters.
"The flat and terraced house market has shown a downturn. This is the bread and butter for transactions and these transactions are critical for the entire market to remain fluid" he commented.
"I am concerned that the critical sector in the Chiswick market has fallen in line with other premium areas throughout the UK despite the lack of available stock and feel that unless 2012 brings a higher level of transactions in the lower priced markets we may be reporting a more serious conclusion once we receive the figures for Q4 2011."
The figures from the Land Registry show that prices are up 11.2 per cent over the same quarter last year, and where high-end areas such as Bedford Park (W4 1), are concerned, the average price of a house is over a million pounds.
Taken over the longer term, the price average has doubled over the last ten years, but volumes are well down on what they were ten years ago.
Mr. Harper said the headline figures were not reflective of the general market.
"I believe the dramatic increase in prices has been fuelled by both a shortage in available stock and foreign investment. We are back to sealed bids and high levels of activity due to a worrying shortage of new instructions".
He added it was quite remarkable that Chiswick was still seeing the arrival of new estate agents despite transaction levels being so low and said it proved the industry must still be a "cash cow" due to fees.
The September data from Land Registry's national House Price Index shows an annual price decrease of 2.6% which takes the average property value in England and Wales to £162,109. The only region to experience an increase in value over the last 12 months is London with a rise of 2.7%.
The most up-to-date figures available show that during July 2011, the number of completed house sales in England and Wales decreased by 11 per cent to 59,919 from 67,475 in July 2010. The number of properties sold in England and Wales for over £1 million in July 2011 decreased by 24 per cent to 707 from 932 in July 2010.
According to the Nationwide's House Price Index which looks at offered prices rather that transacted sales UK house prices increased by 0.4% in October, lifting annual house price growth into positive territory for the first time in six months. The price of a typical home at £165,650 was 0.8% higher than October 2010.
Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said, “Given the challenging economic backdrop, October’s data is encouraging, but it doesn’t fundamentally change the picture of a housing market that is treading water. Property transaction levels remain subdued, and prices essentially flat compared to last year. The outlook remains uncertain, but with the UK economic recovery expected to remain sluggish, house price growth is likely to remain soft in the period ahead, with prices moving sideways or drifting modestly lower over the next twelve months.”
W4 Property Prices - July - September 2011
| Area | Detached | Sales | Semi-Det | Sales | Terraced | Sales | Flat/ Mais |
Sales | Total Ave | Total Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W4 1 | 0 | 0 | 1891696 | 13 | 1009824 | 18 | 474678 | 19 | 1035755 | 50 |
| W4 2 | 0 | 0 | 1154425 | 6 | 718452 | 22 | 404396 | 15 | 669731 | 43 |
| W4 3 | 1195125 | 4 | 1292500 | 9 | 736722 | 18 | 296919 | 13 | 762135 | 44 |
| W4 4 | 0 | 0 | 1490578 | 7 | 1065000 | 4 | 288855 | 18 | 685981 | 29 |
| W4 5 | 741650 | 3 | 694666 | 6 | 680298 | 21 | 345339 | 22 | 543782 | 52 |
| Total | 1000779 | 7 | 1408613 | 41 | 792651 | 83 | 364846 | 87 | 744451 | 218 |
| Change in Quarter | 22.4% | 75.0% | 16.1% | 64.0% | -2.6% | 43.1% | -2.9% | 6.1% | 12.7% | 29.0% |
| Change in year | - | - | 18.4% | 24.2% | 7.0% | -2.4% | -3.8% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 10.1% |
| Change in three years | - | - | 48.8% | 141.2% | 4.0% | 124.3% | 9.0% | 45.0% | 31.9% | 91.2% |
| Change in five years | - | - | 51.3% | -33.9% | 37.6% | -32.5% | 22.5% | -52.2% | 42.6% | -42.0% |
| Change in ten years | - | - | 114.6% | -39.7% | 106.5% | -32.5% | 66.0% | -52.5% | 100.4% | -44.1% |
Roughly speaking the post code sector areas are as follows:
1 - Bedford Park and the north side of the High Road
2 - The south side of the eastern end of the High Rd down to the river at Corney Reach
3 - The Grove Park area and over to Strand on the Green
4 - The west of Chiswick between the A4 and Chiswick High Rd - (a high concentration of flats)
5 - The north west of Chiswick - Acton Green mainly
November 11, 2011