Transaction volumes recover but still well below peak
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Chiswick property prices appear to have fallen from the record levels seen in the first quarter of this year.
According to the latest figures from the Land Registry, the average price of a home sold in W4 during the second quarter was £660,470. This is 3.8% down on the first quarter but up by 5.6% compared with the same period last year. The annual rise in Chiswick comes at a time when property prices across much of the rest of the country are falling.
Although house prices fell marginally faster than flat prices in the latest quarter the longer term outperformance of this kind of property remained intact.
Volumes are recovering with the number of sales in the quarter (169) 12.7% higher than the same three months in 2010. This is well above the levels seen during the dark days of 2008 but still just about half of the number of transactions that were taking place five years ago.
OliverFinn's Christian Harper said, "The latest factual figures are a good example of why headline figures quoted by national institutions cannot be either trusted nor used when pricing new stock. They confirm my thoughts that activity has returned to the flat market with a 9.3% increase in numbers sold whilst showing a slight drag of -3% in prices achieved. Sellers should be mindful that sensibly priced stock is selling. This quarter should show a further improvement in both numbers sold and prices which I believe is due to a slight loosening in criteria with mortgage lenders."
"I am delighted that the flat market has showed such improvement this quarter which will continue to feed the terraced house market and in turn the semi and detached more exclusive markets."
Andrew Dunford of Winkworth of Chiswick comment “This is yet another set of mind-boggling statistics that are, in overall terms, meaningless. Yes, they show that there were far fewer sales than usual – but everyone in Chiswick who reads the property stories on this website knows that already. We’ve all seen far fewer for sale boards outside houses; people are just not moving at the moment – though there are signs that this is changing. As the figures show, the number of sales is increasing – just not at the same rate as we’ve seen in boom times. "
Looking at the longer term he says that if you take property prices over the last 100 years prices have increased at an annual rate of 8% but, if you bought in 1970, the rate of growth has been less impressive – skewed by the very worst time of all in living memory, 1989, when the market dropped by 12 percent, although it recovered very quickly, especially in Chiswick where demand consistently outstrips supply.
He referred to press reports saying Chiswick is the 'new Notting Hill' but added that people in Notting Hill who want to move here have two problems. First, Chiswickians don’t want to move out and, second, the Notting Hill set is finding that selling a £1m flat there does not necessarily give them enough to buy what they want here. There is, as always, a huge demand for three bedroom family houses.
The longer term reduction in volumes in the Chiswick market has caused some to wonder if the area can support the great number of of estate agents. Recent years have seen an even greater market share being taken by local independent agents at the expense of national chains.
Christian Harper said, "What a great time for potential sellers to heavily negotiate estate agent fees as we are all keen to secure instructions. As 97% of all buyers begin their search with www.google.com and enter something similar to ‘estate agents in Chiswick’ in my opinion, no one should be paying more than 1% in the current market."
The June data from Land Registry's flagship House Price Index shows an annual price decrease of -2.5 per cent which takes the average property value in England and Wales to £161,479. The monthly change from May to June is 0.0 per cent.
London is the only region in England and Wales to have experienced an increase in its average property value over the last 12 months with a movement of 0.8%. Over the same period property prices in the North East were down by 7.1%. This brings the average price in London to £339,480 compare to £161,479 in England and Wales as a whole.
W4 Property Prices - April - Jun 2011
| Area | Detached | Sales | Semi-Det | Sales | Terrace | Sales | Flat/ Mais |
Sales | Total Ave | Total Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W4 1 | 0 | 0 | 1637500 | 3 | 973780 | 15 | 370064 | 14 | 771878 | 32 |
| W4 2 | 0 | 0 | 1220487 | 4 | 818280 | 21 | 434916 | 18 | 695217 | 43 |
| W4 3 | 817500 | 4 | 1192268 | 11 | 755157 | 13 | 343649 | 18 | 704080 | 46 |
| W4 4 | 0 | 0 | 1219075 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 327029 | 17 | 496943 | 21 |
| W4 5 | 0 | 0 | 851721 | 3 | 622222 | 9 | 403090 | 15 | 525982 | 27 |
| Total | 817500 | 4 | 1213634 | 25 | 813924 | 58 | 375621 | 82 | 660470 | 169 |
| Change in Quarter | - | - | 13.9% | -13.8% | -7.1% | 1.8% | -3.0% | 9.3% | -3.8% | 2.4% |
| Change in year | - | - | 0.4% | -13.8% | 15.6% | 28.9% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 12.7% |
| Change in three years | - | - | 29.1% | 257.1% | 17.9% | 20.8% | 9.1% | 34.4% | 26.2% | 45.7% |
| Change in five years | - | - | 53.6% | -39.0% | 57.7% | -41.4% | 27.6% | -57.3% | 50.3% | -50.0% |
| Change in ten years | - | - | 98.8% | -55.4% | 109.8% | -38.9% | 75.8% | -45.3% | 87.5% | -45.0% |
Roughly speaking the post code sector areas are as follows:
1 - Bedford Park and the north side of the High Road
2 - The south side of the eastern end of the High Rd down to the river at Corney Reach
3 - The Grove Park area and over to Strand on the Green
4 - The west of Chiswick between the A4 and Chiswick High Rd - (a high concentration of flats)
5 - The north west of Chiswick - Acton Green mainly
August 14, 2011