Polls Split on Who Will Be Chiswick's Next MPs

Both local constituencies look set to be close fought battles

The two constituencies that cover the Chiswick area are set to be much more closely fought than was originally expected with some polling companies now predicting that Ruth Cadbury and Rupa Huq will continue to represent the area.

At the start of the campaign it was widely predicted that the narrow majority of the Labour incumbents in both Brentford & Isleworth and Ealing Central & Acton would be easily overtaken due to the national swing towards the Conservative. Some polling companies are still predicting a large Tory majority which would imply that they would win marginal seats like the ones in the Chiswick area.

However, in the week before the election a resurgence in the Labour vote has made the two local seats no longer foregone conclusions.

YouGov polls this week have published a poll predicting a hung parliament with the Conservatives failing to gain an overall majority. This is based on a seat by seat analysis and this puts Brentford & Isleworth as a ‘likely’ win for Labour. This is the first poll to predict a win for Ruth Cadbury as earlier it was assumed that her slim majority and the national swing against Labour would hand the seat to Mary Macleod. YouGov is now calling the Ealing Central & Acton seat 'Safe Labour.'

Other polls are suggesting that Labour is performing well in London with a 17 point lead over the Conservatives. Anecdotally it appears that Remain supporting Labour MPs like Ruth Cadbury and Rupa Huq are doing particularly well.

The constituency by constituency analysis on Lord Ashcroft Polls last week put the chances of a Conservative victory in Brentford & Isleworth at 57% However in the last few days this has flipped to a 64% chance of a Labour win. This polling group is still predicting an overall Tory majority.

Of those polled in the seat who say they are certain to vote 43% say that they will select Mary Macleod for the Conservatives with 49% opting for Labour’s Ruth Cadbury leaving 9% support for Joe Bourke representing the Liberal Democrats.

In Ealing Central and Acton Lord Ashcroft Polls are now predicting an 83% chance of Rupa Huq winning the seat for Labour. 50% of voters polled who say they are certain to vote are backing Labour with 40% voting for the Conservative candidate Joy Morrissey and 10% for Liberal Democrat Jon Ball.

The Ashcroft analysis also looks at the makeup of the constituency in terms of the way people voted in the EU Referendum. One important reason for the better performance expected of the Tories in Brentford & Isleworth is the lower percentage of electors who are described as 'Resisters' that is people who voted against leaving the EU and want to reverse the result as opposed to 'Accepters' who were for Remain but now want to move on. 39% of Ealing Central and Acton voters are classed as Resisters, five percentage points more than in Brentford & Isleworth.

Another factor which is difficult to measure at this stage is the level of posting voting by students. With the seat being so marginal many may have chosen to register to vote in their home constituency rather than where they are studying. With Labour having committed to abolishing tuition fees the expectation is that this group would be substantially behind Ruth Cadbury.

The bookies have been busy in the constituency with Ladbrokes saying that there has been more betting activity in this seat than any other in the UK. Before betting was suspended their odds on Mary Macleod winning have shortened from 4/1 on to 15/8 on over the last week with Ruth Cadbury now at 11/8.

June 4, 2017